Citing Faulty Toll Road Projections, Reston Citizens Association Calls For Halt on Phase 2 of Silver Line Until Independent Forecast Is Completed

The newest potential stumbling block to Phase 2 of Metro's Silver Line? A fancy 81-page report from our BFFs at the Reston Citizens Association, complete with "scatter plots" and footnotes that say, in essence, that current projections for Toll Road usage and revenues are basically full of crap and that drivers may have to pay for all that false optimism with rolls of quarters on future Crate & Barrel runs to Tysons. Happy Friday, policy wonks!

In letters to all the key stakeholders -- Virginia Governor McDonnell, the FHWA, MWAA, and Fairfax and Loudoun counties -- the RCA argues that no decision should be made on proceeding with Phase 2 of Metro construction until "an independent traffic and revenue forecast" is undertaken.

“RCA has long been enthusiastic about Metrorail to Dulles via Reston,” said Terry Maynard, the report’s principal drafter, “but we do not want a rail line at any price, especially one that forces Dulles Toll Road users to absorb most of the financial burden and area communities to absorb added traffic on already crowded local roads. The prospects are even worse if the WSA forecasts overestimate revenues as much as our research suggests. We hope that an independent forecast, combined with ‘value engineering’ for Phase 2 and restructuring the financial arrangements will lead to a better outcome for everyone.”

Entitled "Plenty of Room for Error," the RCA study argues that "optimism bias" is the main culprit of the current Toll Road revenue projections, citing a whole slew of examples from past projects around the country and charging that current local projections used the best-case estimates of population and job growth, even before the projected decline in federal government spending reared its ugly head.

"We cannot find any recent case in which an existing toll road has absorbed an additional multi-billion dollar debt and succeeded financially," the report states, pointing to projects elsewhere currently facing default.

Without changes in the funding formula, the report argues that one-way tolls will rise to $15, $20 or more within the next 20 years.

RCA raises valid concerns, but an equally grave concern is what happens if Phase 2 doesn't get built for whatever reason -- and the folks in the particleboard Nirvana to our west are already getting cold feet. A Silver Line that ends at Wiehle Avenue is essentially a guarantee of gridlock for Reston, so let's hope some realistic projections and smart decisions come out of this, instead of the bold suggestions we've seen in recent months.

On the YouTubes: 'Strange Sounds' Over Reston

If you can't get enough of grainy YouTube videos of strange lights in the sky over Reston, maybe you'll enjoy this video of strange sounds over Reston instead. There are lots of fascinating conjectures on this fancy video's YouTube page and on Fairfax Underground, but no one seems willing to consider the fact that there's a giant honking international airport just a few miles away. To our untrained ears, it definitely sounds Not of This DRB, but who knows? Maybe it's part of the construction at The Great Hole of Reston. Or maybe the DRB has finally given up on its lighter than air conveyances and developed an unmanned drone with a cloaking device to make sure that all those party walls and courtyards aren't being painted some bizarre color, the end.

Future Shock? As Metro Approaches, Demand for Commercial Space Slows

Much of the master planning for the post-Metro Reston has been focused around mixed-use projects with lots and lots of commercial space -- giant parallelograms of office-space goodness, where government contracting firms can happily strap bombs to dolphins provide valuable taxpayer services.

But what happens when pie-in-the-sky planning meets the mauve harsh light of reality? We're already starting to see hints as officials warn that the spigot of sweet sweet gubmint dollars may slow in coming years.

Northern Virginia is projected to lead the metropolitan Washington, D.C., area in job production in 2012, but overall it will be an “anxious” economic year, according to the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.

Stephen Fuller, the center’s director, and others provided an economic forecast at its 20th annual Greater Washington Economic Conference in Tysons Corner on Jan. 12.

Fuller said during the next few of years the D.C. area’s economy is expected to continue to outpace the national economy, but cutbacks in federal spending eventually will hit the area hard.

“We have always outperformed the national economy in the D.C. area because of federal spending, but what we will have to work off of will be thinner,” he said. “Like other economies dependent on one sector — Detroit and car manufacturing, or Las Vegas and entertainment, for example —when the sector does well those economies do well; but when they don’t those economies suffer.”

Our BFFs at Reston2020 point out that commercial vacancy rates are already rising, with Reston's 2011 vacancy rate of 17.1 percent worse than both the overall county rate (14.5 percent) and Northern Virginia's (13.7 percent).

So what happens next? It's when developers pony up money to actually get the ball rolling on projects that we can see what they think the market really can bear. (Although sometimes they bet wrong.) Two big mixed-use projects with considerable commercial space -- the Macaroni Grill-killing Spectrum redevelopment and the Reston Heights project on the other side of the Toll Road -- are both now in indefinite holding patterns. Reston Station will likely be only a parking garage when the first Silver Line train rolls into the Wiehle Avenue station in 2013. The next big construction project we'll see is Boston Properties' 359-unit "luxury rental" tower, soon to rise from the last undeveloped lot in Reston Town Center. And almost all of the projects that have been approved of late -- or are desperately trying to win approval -- are residential in nature. (The one exception? The Reston Parkway mauvescraper, which goes back before the county planning commission in March.)

Critics of the fancy Reston Master Plan have long argued that a larger proportion of residential properties in future development will strike a better balance, helping mitigate traffic problems and other negative effects of development. While the Master Plan is still being revised, the market may wind up making some of those decisions for it. Right, Mr. Fuller?

Virginia recently surpassed California as the top state in the country for federal procurement dollars, he said.

“About 903,000 jobs in Virginia were dependent on federal spending in 2008, and Northern Virginia accounted for about 75 percent of that figure.”

It is because of this that Fuller says Virginians — Northern Virginians in particular — will feel the greatest effects of government cutbacks.

“Most of us haven’t ever experienced a time when federal spending did not aid the local economy,” he said. “You have to go back to the Vietnam War era to find a time that the D.C. area had flat federal spending.”

Funny, but that's also the era when Reston was built. It'll be interesting to see if its next great wave of post-Metro construction is shaped by similar circumstances.

Flashback Monday: 'Reston Today," Ca. 1975

In a discovery that will shock fans of Reston's fancy video news segments, it turns out that the title "Reston Today" was coined well before the advent of Betamax. This 1975 fact sheet provides a treasure trove of information about our beloved earth-toned community in the midst of the oil crisis, platform shoes, and [insert generic 70s reference here]. So what can we learn about yesterday's today?

The Reston of 1975 was only about one-third of its way to its present size. It had just under 5,000 jobs for a population of 26,000, meaning that the ongoing debate over commercial-residential balance is hardly a new one.

Speaking of neighborhoods, here's a list of the ones on the books back in 1975:

We like the term "Council of Clusters." Sounds a bit like the League of Justice, only with Pantone swatches.

Fortunately, there was already lots to do in Reston. Among the listed "recreational facilities," the horse stables appear to have still been standing. And these strange companies kept appearing under "utilities" -- outfits like "Virginia Electric and Power Co." "Washington Gas Light Co." and "C&P Telephone Co. of Virginia." Where are the listings for Internet providers? Guess we'd have to check the mail for a CD-ROM 3.5" 5.25" floppy disk from CompuServe or something.

And finally, as we wait for funky parallelograms to rise from the ground, please to be checking out the new architectural hawtness ca. 1975, along with a slogan almost as catchy as Live, Work, Play and Get Involved(tm):

The russet brown water stains probably weren't on the original document back in 1975, but they're certainly appreciated.

Police Charge 3 in December Crescent Apartments Shooting; All Believed to Have Fled the Country

Fairfax County police have charged three men in the December murder of Colvin Morris at Crescent Apartments near Lake Anne.

Investigation has led police to charge three individuals in this case. Jose Santos Ponce Zuniga, 31, has been charged with murder. Amilcar Noel Urbina Zelaya, 29, and Saul Pacheco Mejia, 45 were both charged with conspiracy to distribute cocaine. All three are believed to have fled the country.

Seems to fit the earlier assertions by police that this was a "drug deal gone bad." And if they've fled the country, there's always hope that like the butt slasher, they too will eventually be brought to justice.

Genius Alert: Official Suggests Eliminating Dulles From Dulles Rail

After a "compromise" that ensured that the Dulles Airport Metro station will be only vaguely near the airport, one of the airport authority's geniuses board members has come up with a cunning plan to save even more money: eliminate the airport station altogether!

Our favorite part? The idea that you could run a "people mover" from the station on Rt. 28 to the airport terminal. After all, who wouldn't want to be stuck in traffic on 28 and see this in your rear view mirror?

Board member Robert Clarke Brown made the suggestion during a MWAA meeting Wednesday, suggesting that the nearby Route 28 station should instead become the Airport station, and the Route 28 station should be outfitted with a "people mover" system that would ferry riders to and from the airport.

"In my view, this would actually be superior transportation service for our passengers [compared to what is currently planned], because the people mover would take them to the terminal," says Brown.

When asked how much could be saved, the head of the Dulles Rail project, Pat Nowakowski, told the board this option could save around $70 million.

Board members, however, were immediately skeptical of the plan.

As they should be. To be fair, the airport's probably got a bunch of the metal people mover monstrosities lying around since they opened their own fancy below-ground subway, so maybe they're just trying to figure out a way to put them to use. And Brown probably didn't intend for them to be driven on actual roadways when he proposed his plan. So we have a modest suggestion of our own: Why not run the people movers along the W&OD trail, where people could disembark right in the midst of Reston Town Center or Herndon's downtown? Just imagine -- people could shop for frozen yogurt and firearms, all without having to get in their car! And we're sure the people movers' distinctive "sails" will give spandex-clad cyclists and joggers plenty of warning to get out of the way before they lumber by on the path.

You're welcome.

Update: Our brilliant commenters have come up with a few suggestions of their own:

Heck, IAD is an airport, so why not FLY people there from National? They've got a "convenient" Metro stop.

I think they should just move the airport closer to the Weihle Ave station. They could turn the airport access road into a runway, since it won't be needed past Reston anymore.

It's that kind of "outside the box" thinking that will get you a seat on the MWAA board.

Surprise: Arrival of Infrastructure Giant May Actually Mean New Infrastructure for Reston

When infrastructure behemoth Bechtel announced it was moving 625 jobs from Maryland to Reston late last year, we "joked" that this could mean some serious infrastructure improvements around Reston -- stuff like 60-story dams and 14-lane motorways and whatnot. But it turns out we actually will get some goodies, in the form of a state grant used to help lure Bechtel to our beige community.

Fairfax County will get an $1.5 million grant from the commonwealth to be used towards transportation upgrades as Metro's Wiehle Avenue station prepares to open in Reston in 2013.

The Governor's Opportunity Fund (GOF) is offering the grant to the county as part of the incentives to get Bechtel Corporation to move from Frederick, MD to Reston.

Most significantly, the grant will help fund the initial study for the much-needed Soapstone Drive bridge across the Toll Road. The $1.5 million grant also includes $150,000 for a Reston Transit Center trail and a sizable chunk of change to finish the engineering marvel of 2012, the Wiehle Avenue sidewalk extension. So start telling your children that some day soon, they will be able to fulfill the age-old Reston dream of walking from Baron Cameron Avenue to Hunters Woods Plaza without their bootheels ever touching dirt, the end.