News and notes from Reston (tm).

Friday, February 4, 2011

Reston Census Shocker: Big New Buildings Lead to Lots of New People

census map.jpg
The U.S. Census has released its final 2010 Census data for Virginia -- which is almost as exciting as the new phone books arriving -- and this fancy map revealed a shocking fact: Big new buildings lead to population growth, as you can see by the giant green circles that envelop the fancy high-rise condos built in and near Reston's fake downtown gritty urban core over the past decade. We'll give you a minute to wrap your mind around that: big new buildings lead to population growth. Ponderous!

Preliminary census data suggested that Reston's population actually shrunk over the past decade, from 56,407 to 53,759, which has led to some recent hand-wringing about whether growth projections for our beige community are all they're cracked up to be. But just picture a row of giant green circles popping up along the Toll Road, and it's pretty clear that the area is going to continue to grow. What kind of growth, however, still remains to be seen.

Update: One of our commenters crunches the numbers:
There is more of an interesting story in these census numbers. This latest data dump from the Census Bureau did not aggregate numbers for "Reston"; the latest official numbers for Reston we have are from the American Community Survey, which, as Restonian noted, showed a surprising decrease in the population of Reston from 2000 to (2005-2009 average).

However, from the data in the Washington Post's fancy map, which are at the block group level, one can work out some rough numbers for Reston. I have taken the block groups bordered by Route 7 on the north, Hunter Mill Road on the east, Lawyer's Road and Fox Mill Road on the south, and Fairfax County Parkway on the west (going beyond the parkway south of the Toll Road and not so far near Route 7).

Within these boundaries, there were 57,909 residents in 2000 and 61,961 residents in 2010. The roughly 4,000 additional residents are almost entirely accounted for by the new highrise developments in and near Town Center that Restonian highlighted.

At the same time, within these boundaries there were 39,489 non-Hispanic whites ("Anglos") in 2000 and only 39,440 Anglos in 2010. As a result, the percentage of Anglos in Reston's overall population decreased from 68.2% to 63.7%.

This is not quite as dramatic as the decrease in Anglo representation in Fairfax County overall, which dropped from 64.4% in 2000 to 54.6% in 2010 (the county's Anglo population actually decreased by around 60,000 during this period). But it is symptomatic of a trend across northern Virginia - even Loudoun County has become much less Anglo. The only local jurisdiction where Anglo representation in the population increased is Arlington County (data are not available for areas on the other side of the Potomac, but American Community Survey data also suggest that the percentage of Anglos increased in the District of Columbia).
While Reston has always been home to a diverse population, the rest of the county -- and the region -- is catching up.

11 comments:

  1. Well how about this shocker:

    The Reston (read: Keystone) cops give breaks to the famous?

    Redskins defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth has been charged with simple assault for a road rage incident with another motorist on the Fairfax County Parkway in Reston, Fairfax police said.

    Haynesworth, 29, has not been arrested but is planning to turn himself in next week, Officer Shelley Broderick said.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Population shrunk despite huge new cardboard canyons?

    Imagine that! People do NOT want to live in your fake town!

    What were some of the Lake Anne Brutalists saying earlier this week about growth and people wanting to live here?

    Wrong again! 2,648 times!

    ReplyDelete
  3. So 11:06, you basically post here just to tell us we suck.

    If ever someone tells you to get a life, give it deep consideration.

    ReplyDelete
  4. HAHAHAHA

    I live in Arlington -- a REAL place with a formerly gritty downtown and a buried subway.

    Sure we have our issues too; little Vietnam was mowed down for redevelopment (may the Queen Bee rest in peace) and, now, something about the PE teacher from Fairfax County who's now in trouble with the a school?

    My oh my -- don't mess with the P(S)TA!!

    BTW:

    Happy Birthday Governor Reagan!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Reston looks much better covered in liver spots like that

    but considering the growth in Loudoun, seems what you really need to boost the population is empty four story office buildings surrounded by surface parking lots, not 20 story office towers surrounded by bars where the lack of women, and the abundance of alcohol, forces guys to argue with each other over who had the best fantasy football draft

    ReplyDelete
  6. And apparently Cathy Hudgins wants to have LESS roads (and narrower ones) at the same time she's approving more people. Because all the new people in those high rises will NEVER drive their cars to the store, to school, to the mall, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  7. There is more of an interesting story in these census numbers. This latest data dump from the Census Bureau did not aggregate numbers for "Reston"; the latest official numbers for Reston we have are from the American Community Survey, which, as Restonian noted, showed a surprising decrease in the population of Reston from 2000 to (2005-2009 average).

    However, from the data in the Washington Post's fancy map, which are at the block group level, one can work out some rough numbers for Reston. I have taken the block groups bordered by Route 7 on the north, Hunter Mill Road on the east, Lawyer's Road and Fox Mill Road on the south, and Fairfax County Parkway on the west (going beyond the parkway south of the Toll Road and not so far near Route 7).

    Within these boundaries, there were 57,909 residents in 2000 and 61,961 residents in 2010. The roughly 4,000 additional residents are almost entirely accounted for by the new highrise developments in and near Town Center that Restonian highlighted.

    At the same time, within these boundaries there were 39,489 non-Hispanic whites ("Anglos") in 2000 and only 39,440 Anglos in 2010. As a result, the percentage of Anglos in Reston's overall population decreased from 68.2% to 63.7%.

    This is not quite as dramatic as the decrease in Anglo representation in Fairfax County overall, which dropped from 64.4% in 2000 to 54.6% in 2010 (the county's Anglo population actually decreased by around 60,000 during this period). But it is symptomatic of a trend across northern Virginia - even Loudoun County has become much less Anglo. The only local jurisdiction where Anglo representation in the population increased is Arlington County (data are not available for areas on the other side of the Potomac, but American Community Survey data also suggest that the percentage of Anglos increased in the District of Columbia).

    Conclusion? We no longer have a Chocolate City surrounded by lily-white suburbs. Whites are moving back into the city, while minorities are increasingly settling in the suburbs and exurbs. And this is a region-wide trend, so you can't blame it on Cathy Hudgins.

    ReplyDelete
  8. How many more housing units during that time?

    And, hello? Hudgins is black with millions of dollars to, shall we say, dissipate, among those who will vote for her.

    "Blame" might not be the right word, but she's certainly going to get more votes that way than any other.

    I am black, but I would not vote for her -- she's far from a leader or manager and has no idea how to develop community of any sort.

    "Dieting" the roads, but spending billions on an elevated train, and then severely limiting parking at the stations, in a county expected to gather at least a million people in the coming decades is most absurd and the epitome of incompetence.

    Just insane!

    ReplyDelete
  9. How long did it take to turn DC around?

    First, Barry had to be booted, then the financial control board had to come and clean house, then billions of our tax dollars invested for things like granite curbs and quaint but wasteful street lights, then a series of mayors who almost get it, and still more investments. This Anglo migration, as you call it, is mostly into the northwest part of the city. Housing there is outrageously expensive. Why? Supply and demand. Cross the park and the same housing stock is a fraction of the price.

    The rest of DC, including the stalled-again waterfront redevelopment of the urban renewal failure, is still akin to a third-world country and let's not forget PEPNO, the trash debacles and the water and sewer issues.

    Reston is not perfect, but we enjoy reliable services most of time, very cheap and reliable electricity, reasonably drinkable water, but when it snows an the pines come crashing down, we have to wait for termites to remove the debris?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Appreciate ANON 2/5, 11:50PM's look at our increasing population. I wish BLS would make the real data available, however.

    ALSO, the population increase comes despite SHRINKGAGE IN THE SIZE OF RESTON. Check this Census data out: http://reston2020.blogspot.com/2011/02/incredible-shrinking-reston.html

    Pretty soon, all 200,000 of us will have to stand on each other's shoulders to live here!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Oh boy, Terry, won't that be fun, living mano-a-mano with the rest of humanity. That's just what I want for Reston.

    ReplyDelete

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